Forecasting and analyzing the dynamics of the outbreak in Hubei and Turkey
| dc.authorid | 0000-0002-9188-167X | en_US |
| dc.authorid | 0000-0002-9670-5210 | en_US |
| dc.authorid | 0000-0003-1269-4292 | en_US |
| dc.authorid | 0000-0002-6898-5796 | en_US |
| dc.contributor.author | Aslan, İbrahim Halil | |
| dc.contributor.author | Demir, Mahir | |
| dc.contributor.author | Wise, Michael Morgan | |
| dc.contributor.author | Lenhart, Suzanne | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2021-04-16T10:34:09Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2021-04-16T10:34:09Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2020 | en_US |
| dc.department | Batman Üniversitesi Fen - Edebiyat Fakültesi Matematik Bölümü | en_US |
| dc.description.abstract | As the pandemic of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) rages throughout the world, accurate modeling of the dynamics thereof is essential. However, since the availability and quality of data varies dramatically from region to region, accurate modeling directly from a global perspective is difficult, if not altogether impossible. Nevertheless, via local data collected by certain regions, it is possible to develop accurate local prediction tools, which may be coupled to develop global models. In this study, we analyze the dynamics of local outbreaks of COVID-19 via a coupled system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Utilizing the large amount of data available from the ebbing outbreak in Hubei, China as a testbed, we estimate the basic reproductive number, R0 of COVID-19 and predict the total cases, total deaths, and other features of the Hubei outbreak with a high level of accuracy. Through numerical experiments, we observe the effects of quarantine, social distancing, and COVID-19 testing on the dynamics of the outbreak. Using knowledge gleaned from the Hubei outbreak, we apply our model to analyze the dynamics of outbreak in Turkey. We provide forecasts for the peak of the outbreak and the total number of cases/deaths in Turkey, for varying levels of social distancing, quarantine, and COVID-19 testing | en_US |
| dc.identifier.citation | Aslan, İ. H., Demir, M., Wise, M. M., Lenhart, S. (2020). Forecasting and analyzing the dynamics of the outbreak in Hubei and Turkey. COVİD-19 Modelleme Çalıştayı, 22 Haziran 2020. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.11.20061952 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.11.20061952 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12402/2920 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | en_US |
| dc.publisher | Bilim Akademisi | en_US |
| dc.relation.isversionof | 10.1101/2020.04.11.20061952 | en_US |
| dc.relation.journal | COVİD-19 Modelleme Çalıştayı, 22 Haziran 2020 | en_US |
| dc.relation.publicationcategory | Konferans Öğesi - Ulusal - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı | en_US |
| dc.rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess | en_US |
| dc.rights | Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 United States | * |
| dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/us/ | * |
| dc.subject | Quarantine | en_US |
| dc.subject | Social Distancing | en_US |
| dc.subject | COVID-19 Testing | en_US |
| dc.subject | Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) | en_US |
| dc.subject | Reproductive Number | en_US |
| dc.subject | Forecasting | en_US |
| dc.subject | Ordinary Differential Equations | en_US |
| dc.title | Forecasting and analyzing the dynamics of the outbreak in Hubei and Turkey | en_US |
| dc.type | Conference Object | en_US |
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