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Öğe Forecasting financial indicators by generalized behavioral learning method(Springer Nature, 2017-08-09) Ertuğrul, Ömer Faruk; Tağluk, Mehmet EminForecasting financial indicators (indexes/prices) is a complex and a quite difficult issue because they depend on many factors such as political events, financial ratios, and economic variables. Also, the psychological facts or decision-making styles of investors or experts are other major reasons for this difficulty. In this study, a generalized behavioral learning method (GBLM) was employed to forecast financial indicators, which are the indexes/prices of 34 different financial indicators (24 stock indexes, 2 forexes, 3 financial futures, and 5 commodities). The achieved results were compared with the reported results in the literature and the obtained results by artificial neural network, which is widely used and suggested for forecasting financial indicators. These results showed that GBLM can be successfully employed in short-term forecasting financial indicators by detecting hidden market behavior (pattern) from their previous values. Also, the results showed that GBLM has the ability to track the fluctuation and the main trend.Öğe Determining relevant features in estimating short-term power load of a small house via feature selection by extreme learning machine(IEEE, 2017-11-02) Ertuğrul, Ömer Faruk; Sezgin, Necmettin; Öztekin, Abdulkerim; Tağluk, Mehmet EminEstimating short-term power load is a fundamental issue in the power distribution system. Since short-term power load is related to many parameters such as weather conditions, and time. The aim of this study is to determine the relevant parameters in estimating short-term power load not only in order to decrease the computational cost, but also to achieve higher success rates. Furthermore, by using selected features the required memory, equipment and communication costs are also decreased in real time applications. Feature selection by extreme learning machine method was used in determining relevant features. The short-term power loads of two houses (one of them has a power generation capability) were used in tests and achieved results showed lower error rates were obtained by using less number of features.Öğe A novel version of k nearest neighbor: Dependent nearest neighbor(Elsevier, 2017-06) Ertuğrul, Ömer Faruk; Tağluk, Mehmet Emink nearest neighbor (kNN) is one of the basic processes behind various machine learning methods In kNN, the relation of a query to a neighboring sample is basically measured by a similarity metric, such as Euclidean distance. This process starts with mapping the training dataset onto a one-dimensional distance space based on the calculated similarities, and then labeling the query in accordance with the most dominant or mean of the labels of the k nearest neighbors, in classification or regression issues, respectively. The number of nearest neighbors (k) is chosen according to the desired limit of success. Nonetheless, two distinct samples may have equal distances to query but, with different angles in the feature space. The similarity of the query to these two samples needs to be weighted in accordance with the angle going between the query and each of the samples to differentiate between the two distances in reference to angular information. This opinion can be analyzed in the context of dependency and can be utilized to increase the precision of classifier. With this point of view, instead of kNN, the query is labeled according to its nearest dependent neighbors that are determined by a joint function, which is built on the similarity and the dependency. This method, therefore, may be called dependent NN (d-NN). To demonstrate d-NN, it is applied to synthetic datasets, which have different statistical distributions, and 4 benchmark datasets, which are Pima Indian, Hepatitis, approximate Sinc and CASP datasets. Results showed the superiority of d-NN in terms of accuracy and computation cost as compared to other employed popular machine learning methods.Öğe Forecasting local mean sea level by generalized behavioral learning method(Springer Nature, 2017-03-13) Ertuğrul, Ömer Faruk; Tağluk, Mehmet EminDetermining and forecasting the local mean sea level (MSL), which is a major indicator of global warming, is an essential issue to set public policies to save our future. Owing to its importance, MSL values are measured and shared periodically by many agencies. It is not easy to model or forecast MSL because it depends on many dynamic sources such as global warming, geophysical phenomena, and circulations in the ocean and atmosphere. Several of researchers applied and recommended employing artificial neural network (ANN) in the estimation of MSL. However, ANN does not take into account the order of samples, which may consist essential information. In this study, the generalized behavioral learning method (GBLM), which is based on behavioral learning theories, was employed in order to achieve higher accuracies by using samples in the training dataset and the order of samples. To evaluate and validate GBLM, MSL of seven stations around the world was picked up. These datasets were employed to forecast the local MSL for the future. Obtained results were compared with the ones obtained by ANN that is trained by extreme learning machine and the literature. The GBLM is found to be successful in terms of the achieved high accuracies and the ability to tracking trends and fluctuations of a local MSL.Öğe Estimation of short-term power load of a small house by generalized behavioural learning method(IEEE, 2017-06-15) Ertuğrul, Ömer Faruk; Tağluk, Mehmet EminPower load estimation, especially short-term power load estimation, plays an important role in the management of a power system in terms of system security and electricity costs. Therefore, estimation of short-term power load accurately is a popular research issue. In this paper, the generalized behavioral learning method (GBLM), a method developed based on human's behavioral learning theories, was employed to estimate short-term power load. The datasets that belong to houses B and C were employed in the estimation process. Achieved results by GBLM and extreme learning machine (ELM) ELM were compared. It is showed that GBLM estimates short-term power load with a higher success rate than ELM.Öğe A basic and brief scheme of an application of a machine learning process(Batman Üniversitesi, 2017) Ertuğrul, Ömer Faruk; Tağluk, Mehmet Emin; Kaya, YılmazMachine learning methods are powerful tools in modeling systems or extracting knowledge about a phenomenon from samples. This paper is written in order to make the process of machine learning clearer. Therefore, the reason behind the usage of each stage of this process was given briefly. Later, Highleyman dataset was employed in tests in ML methods.Öğe A fast feature selection approach based on extreme learning machine and coefficient of variation(TÜBİTAK, 2017-07-30) Ertuğrul, Ömer Faruk; Tağluk, Mehmet EminFeature selection is the method of reducing the size of data without degrading their accuracy. In this study, we propose a novel feature selection approach, based on extreme learning machines (ELMs) and the coefficient of variation (CV). In the proposed approach, the most relevant features are identified by ranking each feature with the coefficient obtained through ELM divided by CV. The achieved accuracies and computational costs, obtained with the use of features selected via the proposed approach in 9 classification and 26 regression benchmark data sets, were compared to those obtained with all features, as well as those obtained with the features selected by a wrapper and a filtering method. The achieved accuracy values obtained with the proposed approach were generally higher than when using all features. Furthermore, high feature reduction ratios were obtained with the proposed approach, including the achieved feature reduction ratios in epilepsy, liver, EMG, shuttle, and abalone. Stock data sets were 90.48%, 90%, 70.59%, 66.67%, 75%, and 77.78%, respectively. This approach is an extremely fast process that is independent of the employed machine-learning methods.Öğe A novel machine learning method based on generalized behavioral learning theory(Springer Nature, 2016-04-09) Ertuğrul, Ömer Faruk; Tağluk, Mehmet EminLearning is an important talent for understanding the nature and accordingly controlling behavioral characteristics. Behavioral learning theories are one of the popular learning theories which are built on experimental findings. These theories are widely applied in psychotherapy, psychology, neurology as well as in advertisements and robotics. There is an abundant literature associated with understanding learning mechanism, and various models have been proposed for the realization of learning theories. Nevertheless, none of those models are able to satisfactorily simulate the concept of classical conditioning. In this study, popular behavioral learning theories were firstly simplified and the contentious issues with them were clarified by conducting intuitive experiments. The experimental results and information available in the literature were evaluated, and behavioral learning theories were jointly generalized accordingly. The proposed model, to our knowledge, is the first one that possesses not only modeling all features of classical conditioning but also including all features with behavioral theories such as Pavlov, Watson, Guthrie, Thorndike and Skinner. Also, a microcontroller card (Arduino Mega 2560) was used to validate the applicability of the proposed model in robotics. Obtained results showed that this generalized model has a high capacity for modeling human learning. Then, the proposed learning model was further improved to be utilized as a machine learning method that can continuously learn similar to human being. The result obtained from the use of this method, in terms of computational cost and accuracy, showed that the proposed method can be successfully employed in machine learning, especially for time ordered datasets.
